Imagem

​​
​

​​​​
​César Capinha
Researcher for biogeography and predictive modelling at the Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon (CEG-IGOT).
I am a researcher working on biogeography, biological invasions, and computational modelling. I'm currently an Assistant Professor at the University of Lisbon and integrated researcher at the Centre for Geographic Studies.
My main research interests revolve largely around understanding how human-mediated dispersal of species is changing the distribution of life on Earth. I'm also very interested in the spatial and temporal modelling of ecological and biological phenomena relevant to conservation, biodiversity monitoring and epidemiology. I usually tackle these topics using state-of-the-art machine learning and AI techniques and multiples types of data, from spatial global datasets to unstructured information and citizen science observations.

Keywords:  Biogeographical Change  |  Biological Invasions  |  Global Change | Macroecology  |  Predictive Modelling  |  Machine Learning and AI

>You can find me with my group of great researchers and students (and perhaps more up-to-date information) at BIOCHANGE.PT;
>Also as Senior Editor @ Diversity and Distributions, on ResearchGate and at Google Scholar;
>At my institution: CEG-IGOT, UL.
>You can reach me directly at: cesarcapinha(_at_)edu.ulisboa.pt​
>​My Main Scientific Discoveries are also listed below.​

​NEWS:​ ​
MAIN SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES
Picture
​​​2025.  In a work published in Nature Communications, we presented the first comprehensive global assessment of the invasion history and spread dynamics of mosquito species that transmit human diseases. Drawing on nearly 700 first records across 288 regions, we found that 45 mosquito species, about a quarter of all known human disease vectors, have been introduced beyond their native ranges, and that introductions have accelerated sharply since the 1950s.  ​We also found that, while early invasions were dominated by African species, more recent introductions are primarily of Asian origin, with North America, Europe, and Australia as main recipients. Socioeconomic factors, particularly GDP, population size, and insularity, are key predictors of introduction and establishment hotspots, underscoring the role of global trade and transportation networks in shaping mosquito spread. The study provides a foundation for anticipating future invasions and managing emerging vector-borne disease risks worldwide.
​[Role: Senior Author].​​
Picture
2023. ​In a work published in PNAS, we mapped the global network of how alien species have spread over time. Using a dataset of first‐record dates for alien species across birds, nonmarine fishes, insects, and vascular plants, we detected consistent “hub” countries that tend to be early 'adopters' of non-native species, from which spread radiates outward. The global spread network thus has two tiers: a backbone of key dispersal hubs driving long‐distance, intercontinental movement, and a secondary layer of local radiative spread to nearby countries. We found that geographical proximity, climatic similarity, and trade volume strongly predict which countries share alien species and the timing of their first records. These results suggest that strategic targeting of hub countries could create cascading effects to slow global spread, and that monitoring hubs may serve as early warning sites for future invasions.  [Role: First Author].​
Picture
2021/2022. In two companion works published in Diversity and Distributions and Biodiversity Data Journal, we performed the first global overview of the diversity and biogeographical patterns of introduced macrofungi (aka mushrooms). The initial work introduced a comprehensive database documenting the worldwide distribution of nearly 650 (!) introduced macrofungal species and their dates of first recording in the non-native regions. Building on this dataset, we found that regions with higher economic development, larger land area, and milder climates host the greatest richness of alien fungi. We also found that regions with similar temperatures or latitudes tend to share more introduced species, indicating a strong climatic signal in their establishment patterns. Together, these studies highlight a very high diversity of non-native macrofungi already existing worldwide and how socioeconomic and environmental factors jointly shape their spread and establishment. [Role: Senior Author].
Picture
​2020. In a work published in Global Ecology and Biogeography, we showed that human activities are profoundly reshaping the biogeography of amphibians and reptiles on islands worldwide.  Drawing on historical (pre-15th century) and contemporary species distribution data, we found that species numbers have risen sharply in most islands, with introductions far exceeding extinctions. We also found that these changes (extinctions plus introductions) are driving marked biotic convergence between island groups that once held distinct faunas, with striking compositional similarities now emerging even between archipelagos in distinct oceans, such as the Caribbean, Indian, and the Pacific. Island communities that evolved in isolation are now increasingly defined by shared assemblages of widespread human-introduced species.  A clear example of how human activity is reshaping fundamental biogeographical patterns.[Role: First author].
Picture
2018. In a study published in PNAS, we found that more isolated islands tend to host higher numbers of established introduced species across multiple taxonomic groups, including plants, ants, mammals, and reptiles, whereas native species decline with increasing isolation. For several groups, particularly ants, mammals, and reptiles, these human-mediated introductions have already substantially weakened or even erased one of the core predictions of island biogeography theory: the expected negative relationship between isolation and species richness. In other words, human-driven species introductions are effectively counteracting the natural decline in diversity caused by island isolation. [Role: Co-author].​
Picture
2017. In a work published in Nature Communications in 2017, we examined the global tempo of alien species introductions over the past ~200 years. Using a database of >45 000 first records representing Z15,000 established introduced species, we showed that the annual rate of new introductions recorded has continued to rise, with no evidence of slowing or saturation. About 37% of all first records occurred in the period 1970–2014. We further found that variation among taxonomic groups and continents reflects historical colonial expansion (especially European diaspora) and increasing trade in the 20th century. In most groups, the accumulation of introduced species is accelerating rather than decelerating. These findings underscore that past control efforts have not kept pace with globalization, and that species introductions are likely to continue rising globally. [Role: Co-author].
Picture
2017. In a work published in Diversity and Distributions, we presented the first global assessment of the diversity and biogeographical patterns of established introduced amphibians and reptiles. Using a comprehensive dataset covering 359 regions worldwide, we found that nearly 200 reptile and 80 amphibian species have already formed self-sustaining populations outside their native ranges. The distribution of these species is strongly linked to insularity, climatic heterogeneity, and socioeconomic development, with islands and economically developed regions supporting the highest numbers of established species. Patterns of species exchange revealed that amphibian introductions are mainly concentrated within the Americas and Europe, whereas reptile introductions occur on a truly global scale. These findings provide the first harmonized, quantitative understanding of how human-mediated dispersal is reshaping the global biogeography of amphibians and reptiles. [Role: First author].​
Picture
2015. In a work published in Science, we showed that human-mediated species redistributions can create global patterns of compositional similarity that are shaped more by climate than by natural dispersal barriers or evolutionary history. Using distribution data for human-introduced terrestrial gastropods worldwide, we found that species which once defined traditional zoogeographical regions (such as the Nearctic, Palearctic, Neotropical) now form regions that correspond more closely to major climate zones. A particularly clear division emerges between (sub)tropical and temperate regions, with temperate areas in different hemispheres often sharing more species with each other than with neighbouring tropical regions. These results point to an emerging, climate-driven form of biogeographical regionalization that may become increasingly prevalent as human activities continue to liberate species from species natural dispersal barriers worldwide. [Role: First author].
​